As we’re all well aware, effective election preparations are all about good messaging (and the self-fulfilling prophecies that often come with it), and the “Latinos are re-aligning towards the GOP” is one of the dumber and more inaccurate media memes that deserves to be ruthlessly picked apart. As usual esp before a midterm election, media pundits jockeying for clicks and attention try to trot out something edgy and headline-grabbing, whether accurate or not. The fantasy of Latinos re-aligning towards the GOP is hardly new—it’s been a delusion of the GOP and their pollsters ever since Nixon and other Republicans talked about Latinos as “natural conservatives” (as if that means anything when the GOP “conservatives” have now gone full fascist). But this moronic, bullshit narrative has been fed even by some members of the “liberal” media (esp NPR and even the Washington Post, by at least some of their columnists) largely due to one embarrassing off-base data point: the supposed “drift” of Latino voters to favor Trump in 2020, due to exit polls conducted in the most unusual and atypical electoral environment since such polls have ever been conducted.
Despite some clear but diffuse attempts to debunk that bad data and claims (Ronald Brownstein’s recent Atlantic article being one of the few to take even a half hearted stab at it), a number of media outlets have run with it, simply because it gives some clickbait to draw in more advertising dollars from Americans already getting jaded about some of the lead-up to Nov. 2022. Now to be clear, Dems of course should never take the Latino vote for granted and we should work as hard as ever to win it by a large margin, but no, there is not any indication of some “new” tilt to the GOP anymore than the “natural conservative” myth had anything to it when Nixon and Reagan made the dumb claim decades ago. Here’s why:
First, the bullshit claim that Latinos “broke for Trump” to an unusual degree in the 2020 Presidential election was based on a colossal blunder of data collection and analysis, and sheer incompetence that would raise serious questions of professionalism if it occurred in any context outside of chronic (and moronic) mis-interpretation of political trends in the media. The reason: the exit polls were overwhelmingly conducted on Election Day, but for the first time in American history, an enormous percentage of votes counted in November 2020 were cast before Election Day itself, both through early-balloting and by mail, due to COVID-19 and other factors. Never before had so many voters gone to the polls before the day of the election itself, and Democrats overwhelmingly opted for early voting and vote by mail. This includes Latinos who voted Democratic, at all levels of the elections, who were largely not reached in the Election Day exit polls, which the media in general still largely and stupidly assumed were representative of the electorate. As soon became clear, Republican voters of all backgrounds disproportionally waited until Election Day compared to Democrats and Independents, and as a result, Election Day exit polling wildly oversampled Republican voters of all backgrounds, including Latinos, African-Americans and native Americans. Subsequent analyses (which made a more concerted effort to reach early and mail-in voters) debunked the apparent claim—the Latino support for Democratic candidates in 2020 was very much in line with historical patterns, at around two-thirds to 70 percent of the vote nationwide. (Angela Ocampo and her team have been an especially good source of professional data collection and analysis on this, and just as valuably, they summarize the data from multiple other sources in the months following November 2020 that actually do their homework to look at the broader voter base.)
Importantly, Latino Democratic support also held strong at that level in Texas, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina, all Battleground States we need to win, and was much stronger than initially thought in Florida, with younger Cuban-Americans actually trending more Democratic compared to older GOP-leaning Cuban-Americans, and with Dominicans, Mexicans, Guatemalans, Colombians and Puerto-Ricans in Florida also heavily trending Democratic. The initial claim that the Rio Grande Valley was “going MAGA” evaporated on closer analysis—only one smaller county showed such significant tipping towards Trump, otherwise the RGV remained solidly Democratic. This shouldn’t come as much of a surprise—just a year earlier, the white American terrorist (which is exactly what he was) Patrick Crusius targeted and massacred two dozen Latinos at a Walmart in El Paso because he was terrified about the “Hispanic invasion of Texas” in his own words, and the neo-fascist GOP is all-in on white supremacy, this time without the dog whistles. Latino voters aren’t stupid, and they as a group see how dangerous the GOP is for their people and interests. (Some follow-up studies debunking the supposed “Latino shift” to Trump did find a slight shift among African-Americans towards the GOP that remained after the broader surveys to include early and mail-in voters, but still far too small to have any significant effect on the elections.)
Second, the recurring bullshit about Latinos as “natural conservatives” on issues like family, abortion and other topics. This claim was always based on idiotic weasel-wording, but even more so when the modern neo-fascist GOP poses such a clear and present danger to American democracy and the health of tens of millions of Americans. On a number of issues that ask about things like church attendance and supporting intact families, it’s long been recognized that both Latinos and (even more so) African-Americans are if anything more socially conservative than other groups, for reasons that shouldn’t surprise anyone: Latinos and African-Americans are disproportionally working-class and aiming for social mobility, having to deal with crime, truancy, gangs and drug-dealing in their neighborhoods. It’s especially important in such communities to support intact families, community cohesion and values that (at least in traditional media rhetoric) are “socially conservative”, and it’s been true for decades. Such “social conservatism”does not equate, however, to the forced-birth and “women are just useful as uteruses” extremism of the modern GOP. It also does not mean, that such socially conservative Latinos and African-Americans (in the more moderate traditional sense) have any interest in supporting the GOP, whether in past decades or (still more so) the neo-fascist GOP we have now.
The fact is that both Latinos and African-Americans widely (and correctly) understand that the Republican Party, whatever its claims to representing their social conservatism on some issues, is in fact the party of exploitative big businesses and white supremacists who merely use social conservatism as a fig leaf. And the GOP is, in fact, a determined enemy to their interests. This is why Republicans ever since Richard Nixon (with only a few exceptions) have been stuck in the role of Charlie Brown trying and failing to kick the football, in hoping that Latinos and African-Americans might someday embrace the claimed social conservatism of the GOP and support them. In five decades, it’s never happened and in fact, Latinos across the US (and crucially in Swing States like Texas and Arizona) have been trending more Democratic, again for the same reason as before: Latino voters are not stupid.
Latinos are well aware of the virulent hatred of the GOP’s white supremacist base for Hispanic/Latino people and their heritage and roots (for the overwhelming majority of US Latinos) in the indigenous peoples of the Americas—hence why a conservative lunatic in El Paso mass-murdered dozens of Latinos in El Paso in 2019. (This is occurring at the same time that Latinos in the United States are more embracing than ever of the American indigenous and African heritage in their family backgrounds—good write-up in Manuel Pastor’s article on “the browning of brown America” with some interesting surprises from the 2020 Census) They’re well aware of the GOP’s stands against worker’s rights, healthcare access, fair wages, immigration, opportunities in education and the rights of women and people of color—all strongly against the best interests of Latino-Americans. (And almost no one cares whether “Latino” or “Latinx” is used as a descriptor—in the real world, people with jobs and families just don’t give a shit about those “hot-button” culture-war issues that Fox News and Newsmax trot out so desperately.)
And on abortion, Latino voters are in line with the views of the large majority of Americans overall—even if many are cautious and want to reduce abortions where possible, they also recognize that abortion when necessary is a difficult and complicated issue, that decisions are best left to a woman and her caregivers and that abortion is best reduced with better economic opportunities and women’s health. Latinos are absolutely not anti-abortion zealots, they don’t embrace the forced-birth, openly misogynistic stances of the self styled “pro-life” fanatics (a misnomer if there ever was one) in the American Taliban that is today’s Republican Party. (Which includes, as we’ve recently seen, top GOP policy-makers like Jim Bopp and other Republican leadership openly calling for a raped 10 year old girl in Ohio to be forced to give birth to her rapist’s child, likely losing both mother and baby in the process—a statement we should be putting in Democratic campaign ads every day leading up to the 2022 and 2024 elections.) Even among those who incline to some restrictions in certain cases, Latinos overwhelmingly oppose the GOP extremists trying to interfere with abortion access even in horrific cases (like rape, incest and a clear threat to the mother’s life)—again in line with the overwhelming majority of Americans in general who oppose Republican excesses here. It’s worth keeping mind that the Bible, Christianity and Catholicism do not, in basic doctrine, embrace anything like the misogynistic excesses that today’s GOP is pushing for—their anti-abortion zealotry is all about secular politics not religion, with old feeble men desperately trying to exert control over women, using made-up religious “doctrine” as a fig leaf. (Voters are catching on to the Republican bullshit here even in states usually thought of as heavily conservative, like Kansas and Alabama, where the extreme restrictions even in cases like rape and incest are proving deeply unpopular.)
And on top of that, though most Latinos are Catholic, their form of Catholicism is very distinct, with an emphasis on liberation theology, community and care for the poor, for family and for women (with particular importance given to the model of the Virgin Mary), which became especially important for mestizos and indigenous peoples in Latin America fighting for their rights and communities—similar to the way many evangelical churches were essential in supporting the abolitionist movement in the US. Their Catholicism is a world apart from the fake controlling doctrine of people like Alito or Scalia, and Latinos overall strongly disagree with their views. This is another reason why the moronic claim of Latinos as “natural conservatives” keeps getting crushed when reality meets the wishful thinking and fantasies of Republican strategists and pollsters. Latinos are Catholic and evangelical Christian in a way that fundamentally differs from the hate-filled extremes of GOP white supremacists and misogynists who try to wear that mantle.
Third, American Latinos—in big part due to the reasons mentioned in the previous paragraph—are very wary of political parties that embrace despotism and authoritarianism, and who try to suppress the vote in any way. This is a major reason why so many of them or their ancestors escaped their home countries to come to the US in the first place, or—for Latinos with roots in what’s now the US even before the Mexican-American War in 1848—“the border crossed us” (“La frontera nos cruzó”). Latinos of many nationalities are well aware of the damage and ruin that fascist leaders can visit upon a country, and don’t have illusions about things working out for the best if an authoritarian gets into power. Even for those who don’t tune into the political scene in detail (which after all, is most of us especially with the demands of jobs and families), the GOP’s extremism, backwardness and drift towards authoritarianism are all readily in evidence. In fact, in what may be one of the bigger ironies of the 2022 midterms, the GOP’s recent extremism and outrages on abortion and other issues are proving to, finally, be one of the few triggers to overcome the long-standing problem of Democratic voter apathy in key Purple States like Texas, Arizona, Virginia, Nevada, Florida and North Carolina.
Texas in particular, has a demographic profile similar to California and a similar trendline to California going into the 2000’s—a strong Red State for 50 years (yes, California was once a rock-solid Red State for 5 decades, until the 1990’s and even after that for much of state government) but with narrowing margins with each election cycle, and with Democrats facing obstacles above all with voter turnout due to an apathetic voter base, slowly making gains at local and state levels before breaking through. That breakthrough in California finally occurred largely due to the GOP’s utter mismanagement of the state’s affairs after the Rodney King riots and especially the hate-filled Proposition 187 in 1994, which finally galvanized Latinos—seeing the threat of fascism once again—to turn out in large numbers. We’re starting to see early indications of something similar in Texas, Arizona and other important Purple States, with historically low Latino voter turnout finally showing signs of turning around. And the GOP’s neo-fascist extremism is a big contributor to that. Clearly, once again it’s worth pointing out that Democrats must not take the Latino vote for granted. We need to work even harder with GOTV, with local contacts, Spanish media and discussions (including on ballots, social media and campaign literature), demonstrations of our platform and how it’s relevant, neighborhood-specific policies, driving people to the polls, retail politicking and truly listening to and responding to concerns of Latino communities. Latinos like Americans of other backgrounds, are concerned about their financial stability with inflation taking a toll especially on those trying to afford rent and groceries, and know that it must be (and is) being more aggressively confronted. And we need to be especially aggressive with providing assistance for naturalization, registration and turnout of Latino and other immigrant voters whose votes are especially critical in Battleground States, and who are under no illusions about Republican hatred for them and their communities.
But let’s take a step back and marvel at a trend that is (almost) historically unique for the 2022 midterms: Democrats are about even (and as of a couple days ago, pulling ahead) in the generic balloting for Congress. This is a rarity—among the few historical near-certainties of American elections is that the ruling party takes a beating in the midterms, especially if they control not only the Presidency, but also both houses of Congress. Among other reasons, this is basically a structural feature of US election cycles—the party in power inevitably winds up over-promising (in part to get elected) but, due to the limitations of the system and even more so the sclerotic, obstructionist politics since 2008, winds up seriously under-delivering. It’s even rarer amid multiple simultaneous crises, including the ongoing pandemic, inflation, plummeting US health and life expectancy, a housing shortage and continuing infrastructure shortfalls. And yet, even with all these massive head-winds, the Democrats are more than competitive going into this year’s midterms for Congress, statehouses and state legislatures—even with all the repulsive gerrymandering by the GOP. And the reason again, is that Americans are not stupid. They see the drift towards extremism of the neo-fascist GOP, they see its white supremacist and authoritarian tendencies and more and more Americans—even if they sympathized with GOP views in the past—know that the Republican Party is not only unfit to govern, but the greatest threat to democracy in America’s history. That’s doubly true of Latinos, who know as well as anyone how an authoritarian party and leadership can and do wreck entire nations.